With gains across the country, the PPC could be a potential spoiler in the election: Nanos
|CTVnews 15 Sep 2021 at 15:03|
TORONTO -- Since the start of the federal election, the Peoples Party of Canada has seen its support steadily increase across the country, leading pollster Nik Nanos to suggest that it could become a spoiler for the other parties.
According to a report conducted by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail, which was released on Wednesday, the PPC has been gaining ground throughout the country with dramatic surges in British Columbia and Ontario.
The Peoples Party has been gaining support compared to the beginning of the campaign, Nanos said during Wednesdays edition of CTVs Trend Line podcast. Theyre not challenging to win a whole bunch of ridings, but they could be a potential spoiler.
There is one riding in particular, however, where Nanos said the party might stand a chance of winning: PPC Leader Maxime Berniers own riding of Beauce, Que. The former Conservative had held the rural riding since 2006 before losing his seat in the 2019 federal election when he campaigned under the PPC banner.
To achieve this, Bernier and his partys 311 candidates have been campaigning to lure disenchanted Tory supporters and others to the PPC for a purple wave on Sept. 20.
The momentum appears to be in the partys favour, according to Nanos polling data, which showed their national support was below 2 per cent when the writ was issued on Aug. 15. Fast-forward to the latest nightly tracking data, released on Wednesday, and the PPC is now enjoying 6.8 per cent support nationally.
The PPCs swelling share of support has been enough to attract the attention of journalists who asked Conservative Leader Erin OToole if he was concerned about Berniers party splitting the vote among right-leaning voters during a recent campaign stop in the Greater Toronto Area. The Conservative leader evaded the question.
According to Nanos and other political pundits, Bernier and the PPCs increasing popularity can be largely attributed to their vocal stance against government-imposed COVID-19 vaccine mandates and passports.
Political strategist Shakir Chambers, who helped Doug Ford s Progressive Conservatives win the 2018 provincial election in Ontario, said that the PPC has tapped into an anger about this topic among Conservatives and non-Conservatives alike.
Theyre saying we should have a conversation about these things, no other partys saying that you can even converse about whether this should be mandatory or not.
Although the PPC appears to be attracting support across the country, there are some regions where the gains have been particularly noticeable.
Nanos Research broke down the regional divides in party support across the country in its special report by comparing a five-day period at the beginning of the campaign (Aug. 18 22) to a five-day period after the official leaders debates (Sept. 10 14).
Here are the regional findings.
According to Nanos, B.C. is shaping up to be a tight three-way race between the Conservatives, NDP, and Liberals, with the PPC registering the greatest increase in support among the parties from the start of the campaign.
Im going to probably sound like I m repeating myself when we talk about the People s Party and a lot of other parts of the country, because we re seeing that trend in a lot of other places too, Nanos said.
The Green party, on the other hand, hasnt enjoyed the same trajectory this election. Nanos said the party has enjoyed support as high as 15 per cent in B.C. in past elections, but this time around it only has 8 per cent.
[Its] probably a bit of a disappointment compared to historically some of the ups that they ve realized in that province, he said.
Party support for Aug. 18-22 and Sept. 10-14:
The Prairies remain a stronghold for the Conservatives, according to Nanos, who said the party has retained the same support it had at the start of the campaign when you factor in the pollings margin of error.
Prairies remain a lock for the blue team, Nanos said. I don t think theres going to be a big difference in the in the Prairie provinces because the Conservatives still have a commanding lead when it comes to ballot support.
Party support for Aug. 18-22 and Sept. 10-14:
Looking at the entire province of Ontario, Nanos said the Liberals have maintained their lead over the Conservatives and have even managed to open up a wider gap since the start of the campaign. He also noted that the Greater Toronto Area remains a Liberal stronghold, according to the data.
Not a big surprise, in fortress GTA the Liberals still have a pretty strong lead. They ll probably do very well in the GTA, he said.
Notably, the PPC has made some headway in the province, Nanos said, with an increase from 1 per cent to 7 per cent support from the start of the election.